Professor Dankmar Boehning - University of Southampton

Abstract

For zero-truncated count data, as they typically arise in capture-recapture modeling, we consider modeling under one-inflation. This is motivated by police data on drink-driving in Britain which shows high one-inflation. The data, which are used here, are from the years 2011 to 2015 and are based on DR10 endorsements. We show that inference for an arbitrary count density with one-inflation can be equivalently based upon the associated zero-one truncated count density. This simplifies inference considerably including maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio testing. The idea is also applied to estimating the size of a dice snake population in Graz, the number of flare stars in the Pleiades as well as to an avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Thailand.

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